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It did this not through unidentified troops moving across a border, nor through hybrid warfare.


The mountainous region is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but since a ceasefire between the two nations has been controlled by ethnic Armenians. The conflict flared up again in September. America watched idly as this happened. By ing, Yerevan gave up claims to the territories it had occupied hk Azerbaijan since and gained nothing — bar a ceasefire rather than a forced surrender.

In return for securing for its ally a marginally smaller humiliation, Moscow gained a present and a presence. The Kremlin ostensibly controls the territory for five years, with an automatic rollover for an additional five should none of the three parties to the ceasefire object six months before the end of the mandate. If the region is strategically important to NATO, that makes it strategically important to cht Kremlin.

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Armenia, for mistrust of Azerbaijan, will want the peacekeepers to stay. The short but brutal conflict has proven conclusively that Armenia cannot win militarily, and that therefore ethnic Armenians must accept either governance by Azerbaijan or the sexx of Russia. Weak and broken, Yerevan finds it less of a humiliation to accept Russian tutelage in Nagorno-Karabakh, if only to deny an archenemy a complete victory.

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But this is a longer-term disaster for the Armenians. It means they are effectively trapped in a Russian embrace. They cannot turn west and ik turn east — either diplomatically or for investment — because the Russians are now in charge.

The West certainly could have seen this coming. This is how it always begins: A toehold soon morphs into a footprint.

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On December 13, miraculously, the land they control had expanded. But this activity demonstrates that Kremlin cartographers are getting creative — and very early in this intervention. Manufacturing new demographic realities on the ground by granting citizenship has been chqt to maintain influence in the internal affairs in other post-Soviet nations.

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